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Conditional Probability

Suppose that you have to guess the suit of a playing card drawn from a $52$ pack at random, you probability of guessing correctly is $1/4$. Now suppose I tell you that it is red. You then have a $1/2$ chance, because there are less choices, you can use the additional information to restrict the space of possible outcomes.

We write the probability of A given that A happened as the probability of A given B: $P(A\vert B)$.

Definition of the conditional probability of $A$ given $B$:

\begin{displaymath}P(A\vert B)=\frac{P(A \;and\; B)}{P(B)}\end{displaymath}



Susan Holmes
2000-11-28