Education 351A  Spring 2011
    Design and Analysis of Longitudinal Research


David Rogosa Sequoia 224,   rag{AT}stat{DOT}stanford{DOT}edu
Course web page: http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~rag/ed351longit/

           For last year's materials, go here
Registrar's information
EDUC 351A: Design and Analysis of Longitudinal Research
Seminar
Units: 1-2
Room: 160-325  Wallenberg Hall, Main Quad 
Schedule: Monday 3:15-5:05pm
Grading Basis: S/NC

Course Description:
The analysis of longitudinal data is central to empirical research on
learning and development. Topics: measurement of change, growth models,
reciprocal effects, stability, analysis of durations including survival
analysis, and experimental and non-experimental group comparisons. 
Prerequisite: intermediate statistical methods. 

Note to students:
The Ed351 course is listed as 1-2 units; any 351 student who desires additional activities and units should enroll also in Independent Study (Educ 490-66 or for Statistics students STATS 299-16).

The Five units of instruction are:
1. Measurement of change: traditional time1-time2 methods etc
2. Growth curve data analysis (lme, random effects models)
3. Group growth, repeated measures (measured and categorical variables)
4. Analysis of durations: survival analysis
5. Special topics:
       Why not path analysis or structural equation models?
       Stability: Change and Sameness, consistency over time
       Reciprocal effects
       Behavioral observations (on-off processes)
       Interrupted time-series


                  Course Content: Files, Readings, Examples

3/28. First class, Organizational Meeting
   Initial meet-and-greet. Class logistics and content overview




4/4. Lecture 1
Measurement of Change: Traditional time1-time2 methods and issues

 Intro via "Myths about longitudinal research"
1. Two observations a longitudinal study make.
2. The difference score is intrinsically unreliable and unfair.
3. You can determine from the correlation matrix for the longitudinal
data whether or not you are measuring the same thing over time.
4. The correlation between change and initial status is
(a) negative
(b) zero
(c) positive
(d) all of the above
5. You can't avoid regression toward the mean.
6. Residual change cures what ails the difference score.
7. Analyses of covariance matrices inform about change.
8. Stability coefficients estimate
(a) the consistency over time of an individual
(b) the consistency over time of an average individual
(c) the consistency over time of individual differences
(d) none of the above
(e) some of the above
9. Casual analyses support causal inferences about reciprocal effects.
Class lecture 1 covers Myths 1-6.

Slides from Myths talk also on CD
Class Data examples:
Myths data examples and description from Rogosa home page Exhibit 1 data
Regression, exogenous variable, example from stat 209 week 9

Background Readings and Resources
Myths Chapter-- distributed on CD. Rogosa, D. R. (1995). Myths and methods: "Myths about longitudinal research," plus supplemental questions. In The analysis of change, J. M. Gottman, Ed. Hillsdale, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 3-65.
A growth curve approach to the measurement of change. Rogosa, David; Brandt, David; Zimowski, Michele Psychological Bulletin. 1982 Nov Vol 92(3) 726-748 APA record   direct link
Rogosa, D. R., & Willett, J. B. (1985). Understanding correlates of change by modeling individual differences in growth. Psychometrika, 50, 203-228.
available from John Willet's pub page
Demonstrating the Reliability of the Difference Score in the Measurement of Change. David R. Rogosa; John B. Willett Journal of Educational Measurement, Vol. 20, No. 4. (Winter, 1983), pp. 335-343. Jstor
Maris, Eric. (1998). Covariance Adjustment Versus Gain Scores--Revisited. Psychological Methods, 3(3) 309-327. apa link  
Application (non-exemplary). There's always hope
NY Times Behavior trouble doesn't doom kids Early disruptive actions might not hurt academic success, studies say   
School readiness and later achievement. Duncan, Greg J.; Dowsett, Chantelle J.; Claessens, Amy; Magnuson, Katherine; Huston, Aletha C.; Klebanov, Pamela; Pagani, Linda S.; Feinstein, Leon; Engel, Mimi; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Sexton, Holly; Duckworth, Kathryn; Japel, Crista Developmental Psychology. 2007 Nov Vol 43(6) 1428-1446



4/11. Lecture 2
Analysis of collections of growth curves (random effects models, lme)


Class Data examples:
1.      Sleepstudy, Bates Ch 4, lme4 analyses handout
2.      Ramus example   R using lme and lmer for Ramus data     wideTOlong data manipulation
3.      North Carolina, female math performance (also in Rogosa-Saner)    North Carolina data (wide format)
       Timepath97 output for Rogosa-Saner data examples: Ramus (Myths chapter), Rat and North Carolina (ncfem210) .


Background Readings and Resources
Longitudinal Data Analysis Examples with Random Coefficient Models. David Rogosa; Hilary Saner . Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, Vol. 20, No. 2, Special Issue: Hierarchical Linear Models: Problems and Prospects. (Summer, 1995), pp. 149-170. Jstor
Data sets for Rogosa-Saner
Doug Bates new lme book lme4: Mixed-effects modeling with R February 17, 2010 (draft chapters) Chapter 4: Sleepstudy example Chap 5, Section 5.5, REML vs MLE
  Music to accompany long-distance truck driver data: 1971 The Flying Burrito Brothers "Six Days on the Road"

Timepath97 Site (SAS based; documentation site used to use Java navigation so substitute links are a little clumsy but I made them work)
Additional talk materials: An Assortment of Longitudinal Data Analysis Examples and Problems 1/97, biostat
Overview and Implementation for Basic Longitudinal Data Analysis CRESST Sept '97



4/18. Lecture 3
Group Growth and comparisons (measured and categorical variables), repeated measures anova


Class Data examples:
Comparing groups on multiple measurements: repeated measures anova etc
     urea synthesis, BK data     Stat141 analysis     data,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, example analyses

Topics:
1. cohort designs
2. repeated measures anova
3. regression adjustments in pre-post non-experimental studies
4. Dichotomous outcomes:
      McNemar's Chi-squared Test for Count Data
         try ?mcnemar.test in R-session, or Samuel-Winters text (pp.442-3) Stat141 example
      Artimitage test, trend in proportions
         try ?prop.trend.test in R-session, Stat141 example

Background Readings and Resources
Wainer and Brown
Three Statistical Paradoxes in the Interpretation of Group Differences: Illustrated with Medical School Admission and Licensing Data
Comparative Analyses of Pretest-Posttest Research Designs, Donna R. Brogan; Michael H. Kutner, The American Statistician, Vol. 34, No. 4. (Nov., 1980), pp. 229-232.   JSTOR link
Lord, F. M. (1967). A paradox in the interpretation of group comparisons. Psychological Bulletin, 68, 304-305.L
Wainer, H. (1991). Adjusting for differential base rates: Lord's Paradox again. Psychological Bulletin, 109, 147-151.
A good R-primer on repeated measures (and lots else). Notes on the use of R for psychology experiments and questionnaires Jonathan Baron, Yuelin Li.   Another version




4/25. Lecture 4
Analysis of Durations: survival analysis, renewal processes


Lecture Topics:
1. Behavioral observations, on-off processes, point and alternating renewal processes
2. Survival analysis; Kaplan-Meier methods
3. Proportional hazards, Cox Regression

Class Data examples:
1. Miller (p.49) leukemia data (Kaplan-Meier);   SAS    Minitab    5/17 example redone in R, package survival
2. Kalbfleisch and Prentice (1980) rat survival (Cox regression). Also best subsets Cox regression example, myeloma
3. R Textbook Examples. Applied Survival Analysis Chapter 3: Regression Models for Survival Data

Background Readings and Resources
Survival analysis:
a nice intro from Univ of Illinois
John Fox tutorial: Cox Proportional-Hazards Regression for Survival Data
R-package: survival; Terry Therneau, Stanford Stat Ph.D
Full course sites on survival analysis: Stanford, John Taylor: Stat 262, Spring 2004
Renewal processes: Behavioral observations
David Rogosa; Ghassan Ghandour. Statistical Models for Behavioral Observations
Journal of Educational Statistics, Vol. 16, No. 3,
Special Issue: Behavioral Observations. (Autumn, 1991), pp. 157-252. Jstor link
Reply to Discussants. Jstor link