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  \textbf{\Large{\textsc{STANFORD UNIVERSITY}}}\\[5pt]
  \textbf{\Large{\textsc{DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS}}}\\[5pt]
  \Large{\textsc{DEPARTMENTAL SEMINAR}}
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  4:15 p.m., Tuesday, January 8, 2008\\
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  Sequoia Hall Room 200\\
  (Cookies at 3:45 in 1st Floor Lounge)
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  \textsl{Peter Jagers} \\
  Chalmers University of Technology and Goteborg\\
  Gothenburg University
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  \subsection*{On the Path to Extinction}
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\noindent

Populations can certainly die out for divers reasons, the most
basic probably being through stably unsufficient reproductive power (whatever
the ground for that may be). Even in this case there is an abundance of paths
to extinction. Still, if the starting population is large, a simple and
beautiful pattern emerges, where random and determistic effects are of roughly
the same order of magnitude. We describe this path and the time to extinction
of large subcritical branching populations, and discuss whether mathematically
'large' could be biologically 'small' (=threatened).

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